Now that enough photos of China's new fighter have surfaced to convince even the skeptics that it's not just a big dragon photoshop contest, Bill Sweetman has some advice on what it might, and more importantly might not, actually be. I'm old enough to remember both kinds of miscalculation about the Soviet capability during the Cold War. I'd like to think we've learned a thing or two since then. Then again, I'd like to think politicians have actually changed since then as well. Both are, unfortunately, not too likely to be true.