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For it is the Doom of Men, that They Forget
The democratic Republic of China, commonly called Taiwan ... frequently irritates Chinese leaders with calls for greater independence from the mainland. But while the American military mulls its options, Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds.This is China’s anti-U.S. sucker punch strategy.
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.
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Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces.
No, dumbass, launching a comprehensive pre-emptive strike on US interests which decimated our Pacific defenses with large military casualties would precipitate WWIII. Ask Japan what happens when you surprise the US and roll them up all the way to the California coast. Hint: it's not pretty, and it's not fun.
Reading past the blunderbuss opening and the confident "plan survives contact with enemy" naivete, the article appears to be based on a press release intended to rattle the Air Force's cage enough to get them to beef up base protection. Which I guess would be all well and good, if they had any money to pay for it.
Look, we plan on taking them down just as often as they plan taking us down. It's how the game is played, and China more than anything else wants to be a Player. However, unlike the USSR, and 1930s Japanese before them, China's prosperity is deeply rooted in the world economy, and they are extremely aware of it. Kicking the biggest member of that economy in the nuts over an island off the coast does not a prosperous country make, donchaknow?
But I gotta tell ya, this would make for a cracking good military thriller. Get Tom Clancy on the phone!
Yeah - we tend to get pretty annoyed with that kind of thing. Given the strategic advantage our forces have, I have to agree with the Chinese colonel who said, "It'd be like throwing an egg at a rock."
Might cause issues to start with, but with our long-range strike ability, the tide would favor us quickly.
One thing not mentioned is that if China started this, I get the feeling Kim Jong Il would decide to flatten Seoul, too. Domino effect and all. Who knows where the Russians would land in this, but IIRC, they don't like the Chinese all that much and might decide to do some of the dirty work.
It'd be a dumbass move on their part - especially if they used nukes, even as an airburst.
Posted by: Ron on January 24, 2008 09:58 AMBecause deep down, for all our rhetoric, the Red Chinese know we won't lift a finger to 'save' Taiwan in the event that the PRC has its own Anschluss and annexes the RoC.
After all, going to bat for Taiwan means we'll fuck up whatever door we have into the vast Chinese market...giving the Europeans and the Japanese an unprecedented "in" over there. Something not politically feasible in these troubled economic times.
As always, the bottom line IS the bottom line!
**sigh**
I dunno - Europe might get a little testy if the PRC decided to forcibly grab Taiwan. Japan is pretty firmly in our corner, so they likely wouldn't be in China's court on this.
That being said, if stood up militarily, it's not likely to be good for the Chinese - and afterwards we get the cheap goods again.
Of course, I could be missing some key position from Europe and Japan that makes my analysis crapola.
Posted by: Ron on January 24, 2008 12:58 PMAlso keep in mind that a BIG percentage of high-tech companies are HQ'd in Taiwan. Remember the earthquake that crippled 2/3rds of the world's DRAM supply? Yeah, that was Taiwan. Most of the heavy stuff has been moved to the mainland, by Taiwanese of all people, but make no mistake, they are a first-world economy, and would have first-world effects if the mainland were to do something violently stupid.
Which is to say the US would have interests at least as strong as, say, a tiny corner Gulf nation sitting on a bunch of oil.
Make no mistake, it's a high wire act everyone's playing here. But it's an act nobody wants to see fall to the ground, so as long as we all stay calm and breathe steadily, I think it will be ok.
Posted by: scott on January 24, 2008 07:49 PMAlso keep in mind that a BIG percentage of high-tech companies are HQ'd in Taiwan. Remember the earthquake that crippled 2/3rds of the world's DRAM supply? Yeah, that was Taiwan. Most of the heavy stuff has been moved to the mainland, by Taiwanese of all people, but make no mistake, they are a first-world economy, and would have first-world effects if the mainland were to do something violently stupid.
Which is to say the US would have interests at least as strong as, say, a tiny corner Gulf nation sitting on a bunch of oil.
Make no mistake, it's a high wire act everyone's playing here. But it's an act nobody wants to see fall to the ground, so as long as we all stay calm and breathe steadily, I think it will be ok.
Posted by: scott on January 24, 2008 07:50 PMThat would be the rational thing to do. Too bad rationality isn't in style any more.
Posted by: Tatterdemalian on January 25, 2008 08:14 AMWell, it is in style with many business types. Since they tend to control much more as an aggregate group than politicians do, they can truly influence the outcome of things like this.
And, to be fair, they're normally backstabbing each other left and right. However, when someone from the outside comes in and tries to mess up their little playground, all hell breaks loose on that outsider. Given the economic success that China's having, I have very little doubt that the same can and would happen there.
Posted by: ron on January 25, 2008 08:40 AM