Instapundit linked up this Defense Tech summary of recent assessments of China's military capability. In a nutshell: they're getting better and bigger and geared up for amphibious assault. Which should make Japan and Taiwan real happy with them.

This is a marked change from previous assessments, which pointed out systemic corruption and the corporate nature of the PLA was holding it back from first-rank status. They appear to be overcoming these obstacles now.

Worrisome? Perhaps, but then again perhaps not. The whole point of some thirty years of US and European realpolitik foreign policy with China has been to knit it so tightly into the international community it won't want to act unilaterally to distrupt the global system. In spite of decades of well-meaning but naive attempts by various human rights organizations to reverse this goal by getting governments to ostracize the Dragon, the strategy does seem to be working. One only needs to see China's trade balances (or talk to its textile competitors) to understand where its prosperity is coming from, and Chinese leaders can read that sheet just as easily as anyone else.

However, nations throughout history have done damned foolish things to themselves for the sake of pride and prejudice before, and the world has paid a spectacular price in blood, tears, and treasure for overestimating the wisdom of other contries's leaders. History has proven quite clearly that the industrial might of a modern nation is an extremely dangerous tool to blindly trust a few foolish old men with. Inclusion is good, yes, even necessary, but only a soft-headed utopian would think money is the only thing required to keep an ambitious and growing nation from wreaking havoc on the world's stage.

So color me concerned about China, but not worried, at least not right now. A vigorous, powerful China could be an asset, as competition, even between nations, always improves the breed. The Dragon in the East has grown powerful enough now that it will rise or fall due to its own efforts. We must be extremely careful to not let emotion or idealism or pride to blind us to this simple fact. Because while we cannot stop its rise, the decisions we make will determine if it steps to the front of the world's stage as a friend, a competitor, or an enemy.