February 15, 2005
Mapping the Results

Instapundit linked up this Patrick Ruffini article that maps the Iraqi election results. The implications are quite contrary to the "US spends billions to elect Iranians in Iraq" conventional wisdom:

Going province by province, 70%+ majorities for the Shia coalition were the norm throughout the South, but if you buy the notion that this group is particularly pro-Iran, you'd expect it to do even better in the provinces bordering Iran (similar to the effect seen in Ukraine, where the provinces bordering Russia were the most anti-Yushchenko). In fact, the map shows the United Iraqi Alliance doing worse and the Allawi bloc doing better in the Misan and Basra provinces bordering the Islamic Republic.

The conventional wisdom is, of course, ignoring the fact that Iraq and Iran waged a crushing and brutal 8+ year war with each other not too long ago. But there's more:

Ultimately, the Shia coalition seems to be too broad-based to pursue any narrow agenda. Though the election was conducted on the basis of strict proportional representation, the Iraqis this first time out have not succumbed to the flaw in most strict-PR systems -- the inability to forge strong governing majorities and the inordinate power of small splinter parties have in brokering crucial votes for the government ... At least in this transitional phase, the rules in Iraq pretty much force government of national unity.

I'm getting that much closer to claiming at least one pizza. Woot!

Posted by scott at February 15, 2005 02:07 PM

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